Avalon Pier
Hourly
Confidence
Compare
⏱️s.
⚡️kJ
Monday 03
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Tap a forecast cell to explore conditions on the map.
Timezone: America/New_York
Wind: GFS (20251103 12z)
Waves: GFS WAVE (20251103 12z)

Avalon Pier surf guide

Avalon Pier is a surf spot located on the Northern Outer Banks, known for its accessibility and potential for decent waves. The area can get pretty crowded, especially when the surf is firing, so be prepared to share the space with other surfers. While the south side generally offers better conditions, the north side has had its moments too. It's a place where conditions can shift quickly, leading to varying experiences from one session to the next.

The surf here handles swell sizes from around 1.2 meters to 2.4 meters (4ft to 8ft) and can be quite fickle depending on the swell direction. It's solid for swells coming from the NorthNorthEast, NorthEast, EastNorthEast, East, EastSouthEast, and SouthEast. You'll find both right and left waves breaking over a sandy bottom, which is pretty forgiving in terms of paddling. Depending on the tide—ranging from low to high—the waves can vary significantly. The best conditions usually arise with a southwest wind, making for fun rides for all skill levels, from beginners to experts.

Access to Avalon Pier can be tricky due to parking rules, especially in summer when lot authorities are more vigilant. Make sure not to park in the Avalon homeowners lot, or you might end up towed. If you're planning to surf here during peak seasons like autumn or when tropical storms are about, expect a lively local vibe, which can be heavy, yet if you connect with the locals, like dropping a name like Barry, you might get along just fine.

Surf reports and surf forecasts nearby Avalon Pier

Laundromats
North Carolina, United States
Beach break
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Tue 11
Wed 12
Thu 13
Fri 14
Avalon Pier
North Carolina, United States
Unknown break
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Tue 11
Wed 12
Thu 13
Fri 14
Avalon Pier
North Carolina, United States
Beach break, Pier break
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Tue 11
Wed 12
Thu 13
Fri 14
Third Street
North Carolina, United States
Beach break
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Tue 11
Wed 12
Thu 13
Fri 14
1st Street
North Carolina, United States
Beach break
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Tue 11
Wed 12
Thu 13
Fri 14

Readme

Welcome! If you’re new to surf forecasting, check out this quick guide.

Forecast Table

The forecast table (the section on the page with all the numbers) is designed to pack as much information in the screen as possible. Although intimidating at first, it will help you make informed decisions about the waves faster, trust me :D. The table consists of roughly four sections, time and predictions, wind, waves, and tides:

🔮 Time and predictions section

Here we show the forecast thour and the overall surf quality prediction. This is determined based on the wave, wind and tide quality prediction. These individual predictions can be found on the forecast map.

💨 Wind section

The first row on the table (with the 💨 icon) shows wind speed, direction and gust. The more the wind speed the more aggressive the color (from blue, green, orange to red).

🌊 Wave section

The waves section consists of three rows, one for wave height and direction, one for period and one for wave energy. Our algorithm choices the "dominant wave". This is normally the first swell partition, but with heavy local storms it displays the wind waves. If that's the case, we display the numbers in italic and in gray.

🌒 Tide section

The tide section consists of a row with the actual heights per hour (measured at the half hour) and a table that displays the flow of the tide and the extremes (lows and highs).

Forecast map

The forecast map consists of arrows. These arrows represent all wave partitions (swell partitions and wind wave partition) and the wind. This allows you to see things like: a secondary swell or wind waves messes up the surf, or the wind is just a tick offshore so very surfable. Click a metric label in the bottom left to bring that arrow to the front — handy when arrows overlap.

Forecast Cheat Sheet

Short on time? Focus on wave energy. It’s the best single metric to gauge how big and powerful the waves will be.

Click any table cell to jump to that forecast hour. The map will update with forecast arrows, so you can see if wind and swell direction are lining up.

Use the table sidebar to switch units for height and speed.

Log your surf sessions to compare forecasts with real sessions and sharpen future predictions.

Models and Updates

Surfnerd blends multiple global and local wind and swell models using advanced interpolation and spatial techniques to create an "ensemble" forecast. Forecasts are refreshed hourly.

Surf Predictions

Our AI-driven algorithm scores surf quality, shown by green, orange, and gray dots. Each forecast hour is rated for wind, swell, and tide quality, then combined into an overall score. Here’s the scale:

Perfect
Good
Average
Bad or No Data

Session logs also feed the algorithm — the more you log, the smarter your forecasts get.

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Confidence

Confidence tells you how much the weather models agree on the forecast.

  • High confidence: Models agree closely; forecast is reliable.
  • Medium confidence: Some disagreement; conditions may shift slightly.
  • Low confidence: Models diverge; treat forecast with caution.

We calculate the wind confidence by comparing wind speed, gust and direction from multiple models (like GFS, ECMWF, Arome, and Harmonie) and seeing how closely they match. For wave certainty we compare height, period and direction, also on multiple models. They are weighted, meaning that some models count more than others, depending on how good they are for a certain spot.

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