Cape San Blas
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Timezone: America/New_York
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Cape San Blas surf guide

Heading southeast down the coast from Mexico Beach, youโ€™ll find Cape San Blas, which is known for its nice point break. This spot is at the southern tip of a sand spit, and you can catch a right point that breaks on South and West swells. Itโ€™s a bit of a hidden gem along the Emerald Coast, where the water glows in beautiful shades of green.

The surf here is pretty solid, with swell sizes ranging from 5 to 6 feet (about 1.5 to 1.8 meters). The best conditions usually come from South-Southeast, South, and South-Southwest swells. You can enjoy beach and point breaks, with waves breaking to the right and left. The wind is ideally from the North-Northeast, Northeast, East-Northeast, East, and with a light outgoing tide, it can get even better. This spot is suitable for all levels of surfersโ€”beginners, intermediates, and experts alike. Just keep in mind that while itโ€™s an average beach break overall, on the right day, some sandbars light up nicely.

Accessing the surf means youโ€™ll need to park and then walk around 20 minutes to get to the spot. You probably wonโ€™t see a crowd out there, just you and maybe some bull sharks, so be vigilant. The environment is beautiful, but just remember that this area is known for having a lot of bull sharks at times, so itโ€™s a good idea to keep an eye on the waters while you paddle out.

Surf reports and surf forecasts nearby Cape San Blas

Blue Mountain Beach
Florida, United States
Beach break
Sun 19
Mon 20
Tue 21
Wed 22
Thu 23
Fri 24
Sat 25
Sun 26
Mon 27
Tue 28
Wed 29
Thu 30
Grayton Beach
Florida, United States
Beach break
Sun 19
Mon 20
Tue 21
Wed 22
Thu 23
Fri 24
Sat 25
Sun 26
Mon 27
Tue 28
Wed 29
Thu 30
Bud and Alley's
Florida, United States
Beach break
Sun 19
Mon 20
Tue 21
Wed 22
Thu 23
Fri 24
Sat 25
Sun 26
Mon 27
Tue 28
Wed 29
Thu 30
Inlet Beach Pier
Florida, United States
Beach break, Pier break
Sun 19
Mon 20
Tue 21
Wed 22
Thu 23
Fri 24
Sat 25
Sun 26
Mon 27
Tue 28
Wed 29
Thu 30
St. Andrew's Park
Florida, United States
Beach break, Jetty break
Sun 19
Mon 20
Tue 21
Wed 22
Thu 23
Fri 24
Sat 25
Sun 26
Mon 27
Tue 28
Wed 29
Thu 30
Shell Island
Florida, United States
Beach break, Jetty break
Sun 19
Mon 20
Tue 21
Wed 22
Thu 23
Fri 24
Sat 25
Sun 26
Mon 27
Tue 28
Wed 29
Thu 30
Mexico Beach
Florida, United States
Beach break, Pier break
Sun 19
Mon 20
Tue 21
Wed 22
Thu 23
Fri 24
Sat 25
Sun 26
Mon 27
Tue 28
Wed 29
Thu 30
Dog Island
Florida, United States
Beach break
Sun 19
Mon 20
Tue 21
Wed 22
Thu 23
Fri 24
Sat 25
Sun 26
Mon 27
Tue 28
Wed 29
Thu 30
St. George Island
Florida, United States
Beach break
Sun 19
Mon 20
Tue 21
Wed 22
Thu 23
Fri 24
Sat 25
Sun 26
Mon 27
Tue 28
Wed 29
Thu 30
Cape San Blas
Florida, United States
Beach break, Point break
Sun 19
Mon 20
Tue 21
Wed 22
Thu 23
Fri 24
Sat 25
Sun 26
Mon 27
Tue 28
Wed 29
Thu 30
Wind certainty

Wind certainty tells you how much the weather models agree on the forecast.

  • High certainty: Models agree closely; forecast is reliable.
  • Medium certainty: Some disagreement; conditions may shift slightly.
  • Low certainty: Models diverge; treat forecast with caution.

We calculate this by comparing wind speed, gust and direction from multiple models (like GFS, ECMWF, Arome, and Harmonie) and seeing how closely they match. They are weighted, meaning that some models count more than others, depending on how good they are for a certain spot.

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Readme

Welcome! If youโ€™re new to surf forecasting, check out this quick guide.

Forecast Table

The forecast table (the section on the page with all the numbers) is designed to pack as much information in the screen as possible. Although intimidating at first, it will help you make informed decisions about the waves faster, trust me :D. The table consists of roughly four sections, time and predictions, wind, waves, and tides:

๐Ÿ”ฎ Time and predictions section

Here we show the forecast thour and the overall surf quality prediction. This is determined based on the wave, wind and tide quality prediction. These individual predictions can be found on the forecast map.

๐Ÿ’จ Wind section

The first row on the table (with the ๐Ÿ’จ icon) shows wind speed, direction and gust. The more the wind speed the more aggressive the color (from blue, green, orange to red).

๐ŸŒŠ Wave section

The waves section consists of three rows, one for wave height and direction, one for period and one for wave energy. Our algorithm choices the "dominant wave". This is normally the first swell partition, but with heavy local storms it displays the wind waves. If that's the case, we display the numbers in italic and in gray.

๐ŸŒ’ Tide section

The tide section consists of a row with the actual heights per hour (measured at the half hour) and a table that displays the flow of the tide and the extremes (lows and highs).

Forecast map

The forecast map consists of arrows. These arrows represent all wave partitions (swell partitions and wind wave partition) and the wind. This allows you to see things like: a secondary swell or wind waves messes up the surf, or the wind is just a tick offshore so very surfable. Click a metric label in the bottom left to bring that arrow to the front โ€” handy when arrows overlap.

Forecast Cheat Sheet

Short on time? Focus on wave energy. Itโ€™s the best single metric to gauge how big and powerful the waves will be.

Click any table cell to jump to that forecast hour. The map will update with forecast arrows, so you can see if wind and swell direction are lining up.

Use the table sidebar to switch units for height and speed.

Log your surf sessions to compare forecasts with real sessions and sharpen future predictions.

Models and Updates

Surfnerd blends multiple global and local wind and swell models using advanced interpolation and spatial techniques to create an "ensemble" forecast. Forecasts are refreshed hourly.

Surf Predictions

Our AI-driven algorithm scores surf quality, shown by green, orange, and gray dots. Each forecast hour is rated for wind, swell, and tide quality, then combined into an overall score. Hereโ€™s the scale:

Perfect
Good
Average
Bad or No Data

Session logs also feed the algorithm โ€” the more you log, the smarter your forecasts get.

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