Mahia Spit Surf Forecast

Tide
⏱️s.
⚡️kJ
Timezone:
Pacific/Auckland
Forecast updated:
14/06, 06:00
Wind: SN UNITY Atmos
(20260613 12z)
Waves: SN UNITY WAVE
(20260613 12z)
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Today Sun 14/06 to Tomorrow Mon 15/06
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Wave breakdown

Swell 1Swell 2Swell 3Wind waves

Mahia Spit Surf Forecast Characteristics

Swell window
NE - S
(Best from NE)
Swell size
3ft - 12ft
Swell breaks over
Uneven Reef
Wave types
Reef
Wave directions
Left, Right
Wind window
SW - SW
(Offshore from SW)
Works at
Mid, High
Skill Level
Expert

Mahia Spit Surf Forecast Guide

Overview

Mahia Spit is a long, skinny finger of rock with reef waves breaking left and right over uneven reef. It’s a good, moderately consistent spot, with the eastern side known for powerful, hollow surf.

The outside Spit is square, super-shallow, and fast, so it’s really for experienced barrel-riders only. The right off the tip and the inside section are much easier.

When It Works

Mahia Spit works on swell from northeast through east-southeast to south, with northeast the optimal direction. It is usable from 0.9 m / 3 ft to 3.7 m / 12 ft.

Wind and Tide

The offshore wind is southwest. Mid to high tide works, with a rising tide better.

Local Tips

This is an expert-level spot, especially on the outside section. It can get busy, and the easier right off the tip and inside section get crowded at weekends.

Just north of Mahia town, Old Mans has scattered cliff-lined sand and reef peaks.

Access

From Napier, head north on State Highway 2 through Wairoa. At Nuhaka, continue onto Nuhaka Opoutama Road, then turn right onto Ormond Drive. At Mahia Beach, continue onto Mahia East Coast Road as it crosses to the east coast of the peninsula and follows the coast through Mahia. Just south of Mahia, the rocky spit is easy to spot.

There are restrooms, camping, a car park with free parking, and roadside parking.


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Readme

Welcome! If you’re new to surf forecasting, check out this quick guide.

Forecast Table

The forecast table (the section on the page with all the numbers) is designed to pack as much information in the screen as possible. Although intimidating at first, it will help you make informed decisions about the waves faster, trust me :D. The table consists of roughly four sections, time and predictions, wind, waves, and tides:

🔮 Time and predictions section

Here we show the forecast thour and the overall surf quality prediction. This is determined based on the wave, wind and tide quality prediction. These individual predictions can be found on the forecast map.

💨 Wind section

The first row on the table (with the 💨 icon) shows wind speed, direction and gust. The more the wind speed the more aggressive the color (from blue, green, orange to red).

🌊 Wave section

The waves section consists of three rows, one for wave height and direction, one for period and one for wave energy. Our algorithm chooses the "dominant wave" using spot-adjusted surf energy (depth + directional fit). This is usually the first swell partition, but during local storms it can switch to wind waves. If that happens, values are shown in gray and italic.

🌒 Tide section

The tide section consists of a row with the actual heights per hour (measured at the half hour) and a table that displays the flow of the tide and the extremes (lows and highs).

Forecast map

The forecast map consists of arrows. These arrows represent all wave partitions (swell partitions and wind wave partition) and the wind. This allows you to see things like: a secondary swell or wind waves messes up the surf, or the wind is just a tick offshore so very surfable. Click a metric label in the bottom left to bring that arrow to the front — handy when arrows overlap.

Forecast Cheat Sheet

Short on time? Focus on wave energy. It’s the best single metric to gauge how big and powerful the waves will be.

Click any table cell to jump to that forecast hour. The map will update with forecast arrows, so you can see if wind and swell direction are lining up.

Use the table sidebar to switch units for height and speed.

Log your surf sessions to compare forecasts with real sessions and sharpen future predictions.

Models and Updates

Surfnerd blends multiple global and local wind and swell models using advanced interpolation and spatial techniques to create an "ensemble" forecast. Forecasts are refreshed hourly.

Surf Predictions

Our AI-driven algorithm scores surf quality, shown by green, orange, and gray dots. Each forecast hour is rated for wind, swell, and tide quality, then combined into an overall score. Here’s the scale:

Perfect
Good
Average
Bad or No Data

Session logs also feed the algorithm — the more you log, the smarter your forecasts get.

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Confidence

Confidence tells you how much the weather models agree on the forecast.

  • High confidence: Models agree closely; forecast is reliable.
  • Medium confidence: Some disagreement; conditions may shift slightly.
  • Low confidence: Models diverge; treat forecast with caution.

We calculate the wind confidence by comparing wind speed, gust and direction from multiple models (like GFS, ECMWF, Arome, and Harmonie) and seeing how closely they match. For wave certainty we compare height, period and direction, also on multiple models. They are weighted, meaning that some models count more than others, depending on how good they are for a certain spot.