Nelscott - Lincoln City
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Timezone: America/Los_Angeles
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Nelscott - Lincoln City surf guide

Nelscott in Lincoln City is known for its challenging surf. This spot features two separate breaks, with the far-out reef being the main attraction, especially on those big days when the swells hit 15ft (about 4.6 meters) or more. The waves here can really pull in the experienced surfers who are looking for something intense. Keep in mind, itโ€™s more common to tow into these waves than to paddle out.

The surf works best with a west swell direction, but you might find it breaking nicely with south or northwest swells too. You can expect waves breaking both left and right over an uneven reef and sandy sections. The Nelscott waves tend to handle sizes around 3ft (approximately 0.9 meters) and up, but youโ€™ll really need to be on your game since those waves can be heavy and pinchy. East winds are preferred, and it can work on low, mid, and high tides, but be aware that itโ€™s primarily for expert surfers due to the powerful nature of the breaks.

Locals often mention that Nelscott can be a bit inconsistent, with the prime surf days showing up every other year or so. When conditions are right, the ride can start a quarter-mile out and roll through some kelp fields before reaching the beachbreak. If you venture a bit north, youโ€™ll find Shark Fin Rock, which could serve up a decent right breakout when the sandbars align. Just south of Lincoln City, there are other spots worth checking out, like the beachbreak at Gleneden and the tougher rock-reef right at Boiler Bay which really craves big south to west swells.

Surf reports and surf forecasts nearby Nelscott - Lincoln City

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Beach break
Tue 14
Wed 15
Thu 16
Fri 17
Sat 18
Sun 19
Mon 20
Tue 21
Wed 22
Thu 23
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Toilets - Pacific City
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Beach break
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Roads End
Oregon, United States
Beach break, Reef break
Tue 14
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D River - Lincoln City
Oregon, United States
Beach break
Tue 14
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Lincoln City
Oregon, United States
Beach break, Reef break
Tue 14
Wed 15
Thu 16
Fri 17
Sat 18
Sun 19
Mon 20
Tue 21
Wed 22
Thu 23
Fri 24
Sat 25
Canyons - Lincoln City
Oregon, United States
Beach break
Tue 14
Wed 15
Thu 16
Fri 17
Sat 18
Sun 19
Mon 20
Tue 21
Wed 22
Thu 23
Fri 24
Sat 25
Nelscott - Lincoln City
Oregon, United States
Reef break
Tue 14
Wed 15
Thu 16
Fri 17
Sat 18
Sun 19
Mon 20
Tue 21
Wed 22
Thu 23
Fri 24
Sat 25
Otter Rock
Oregon, United States
Beach break
Tue 14
Wed 15
Thu 16
Fri 17
Sat 18
Sun 19
Mon 20
Tue 21
Wed 22
Thu 23
Fri 24
Sat 25
Moolack
Oregon, United States
Beach break
Tue 14
Wed 15
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Sat 18
Sun 19
Mon 20
Tue 21
Wed 22
Thu 23
Fri 24
Sat 25

Readme

Welcome! If youโ€™re new to surf forecasting, check out this quick guide.

Forecast Table

The forecast table (the section on the page with all the numbers) is designed to pack as much information in the screen as possible. Although intimidating at first, it will help you make informed decisions about the waves faster, trust me :D. The table consists of roughly four sections, time and predictions, wind, waves, and tides:

๐Ÿ”ฎ Time and predictions section

Here we show the forecast thour and the overall surf quality prediction. This is determined based on the wave, wind and tide quality prediction. These individual predictions can be found on the forecast map.

๐Ÿ’จ Wind section

The first row on the table (with the ๐Ÿ’จ icon) shows wind speed, direction and gust. The more the wind speed the more aggressive the color (from blue, green, orange to red).

๐ŸŒŠ Wave section

The waves section consists of three rows, one for wave height and direction, one for period and one for wave energy. Our algorithm choices the "dominant wave". This is normally the first swell partition, but with heavy local storms it displays the wind waves. If that's the case, we display the numbers in italic and in gray.

๐ŸŒ’ Tide section

The tide section consists of a row with the actual heights per hour (measured at the half hour) and a table that displays the flow of the tide and the extremes (lows and highs).

Forecast map

The forecast map consists of arrows. These arrows represent all wave partitions (swell partitions and wind wave partition) and the wind. This allows you to see things like: a secondary swell or wind waves messes up the surf, or the wind is just a tick offshore so very surfable. Click a metric label in the bottom left to bring that arrow to the front โ€” handy when arrows overlap.

Forecast Cheat Sheet

Short on time? Focus on wave energy. Itโ€™s the best single metric to gauge how big and powerful the waves will be.

Click any table cell to jump to that forecast hour. The map will update with forecast arrows, so you can see if wind and swell direction are lining up.

Use the table sidebar to switch units for height and speed.

Log your surf sessions to compare forecasts with real sessions and sharpen future predictions.

Models and Updates

Surfnerd blends multiple global and local wind and swell models using advanced interpolation and spatial techniques to create an "ensemble" forecast. Forecasts are refreshed hourly.

Surf Predictions

Our AI-driven algorithm scores surf quality, shown by green, orange, and gray dots. Each forecast hour is rated for wind, swell, and tide quality, then combined into an overall score. Hereโ€™s the scale:

Perfect
Good
Average
Bad or No Data

Session logs also feed the algorithm โ€” the more you log, the smarter your forecasts get.

With Surfnerd, no more "you should have been here yesterday"

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Wind certainty

Wind certainty tells you how much the weather models agree on the forecast.

  • High certainty: Models agree closely; forecast is reliable.
  • Medium certainty: Some disagreement; conditions may shift slightly.
  • Low certainty: Models diverge; treat forecast with caution.

We calculate this by comparing wind speed, gust and direction from multiple models (like GFS, ECMWF, Arome, and Harmonie) and seeing how closely they match. They are weighted, meaning that some models count more than others, depending on how good they are for a certain spot.

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