Pavilions
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Hourly
Timezone: Pacific/Honolulu
โฑ๏ธs.
โšก๏ธkJ
Wednesday 15
Thursday 16
Friday 17
Saturday 18
Sunday 19
Monday 20
Tap a forecast cell to explore conditions on the map.

Pavilions surf guide

Pavilions is a surf spot located on the eastern point, known for its wind protection and easy access back out through a defined channel. This spot offers a mix of waves that can be enjoyable yet challenging depending on the conditions. It's particularly favored by local surfers, who often flock here when the waves are right.

The waves at Pavilions tend to work best on a north swell, with good wave action from the northwest and northeast directions as well. It handles swell sizes starting from about 3 feet (0.9 meters) and can provide some fun, ripable waves, especially on lower tides. The waves break over an uneven reef, creating right-breaking waves that can be accessed easily. For the best results, southeast winds are preferred, and intermediate surfers will find the conditions manageable here.

Parking is available up on the lookout, making it convenient for surfers visiting Pavilions. Just be aware that when the waves get up to double overhead, the spot tends to get a little too heavy, especially as Middles picks up. It's a good idea to keep an eye on the local crowd, as this spot can get pretty busy with regulars. Overall, Pavilions is a solid choice for those looking to enjoy some consistent surf in a friendly atmosphere.

Surf reports and surf forecasts nearby Pavilions

Peahi - Jaws
Hawaii, United States
Reef break
Wed 15
Thu 16
Fri 17
Sat 18
Sun 19
Mon 20
Tue 21
Wed 22
Thu 23
Fri 24
Sat 25
Sun 26
Peahi (Jaws)
Hawaii, United States
Reef break, Point break, Offshore break
Wed 15
Thu 16
Fri 17
Sat 18
Sun 19
Mon 20
Tue 21
Wed 22
Thu 23
Fri 24
Sat 25
Sun 26
Pavilions
Hawaii, United States
Reef break
Wed 15
Thu 16
Fri 17
Sat 18
Sun 19
Mon 20
Tue 21
Wed 22
Thu 23
Fri 24
Sat 25
Sun 26
Hookipa
Hawaii, United States
Reef break
Wed 15
Thu 16
Fri 17
Sat 18
Sun 19
Mon 20
Tue 21
Wed 22
Thu 23
Fri 24
Sat 25
Sun 26
Kuau
Hawaii, United States
Reef break
Wed 15
Thu 16
Fri 17
Sat 18
Sun 19
Mon 20
Tue 21
Wed 22
Thu 23
Fri 24
Sat 25
Sun 26
Baldwin Beach Park
Hawaii, United States
Beach break
Wed 15
Thu 16
Fri 17
Sat 18
Sun 19
Mon 20
Tue 21
Wed 22
Thu 23
Fri 24
Sat 25
Sun 26
Sprecklesville
Hawaii, United States
Reef break
Wed 15
Thu 16
Fri 17
Sat 18
Sun 19
Mon 20
Tue 21
Wed 22
Thu 23
Fri 24
Sat 25
Sun 26
Kanaha
Hawaii, United States
Reef break
Wed 15
Thu 16
Fri 17
Sat 18
Sun 19
Mon 20
Tue 21
Wed 22
Thu 23
Fri 24
Sat 25
Sun 26
Kanaha
Hawaii, United States
Reef break
Wed 15
Thu 16
Fri 17
Sat 18
Sun 19
Mon 20
Tue 21
Wed 22
Thu 23
Fri 24
Sat 25
Sun 26
Kahului Harbor
Hawaii, United States
Point break, Slab break
Wed 15
Thu 16
Fri 17
Sat 18
Sun 19
Mon 20
Tue 21
Wed 22
Thu 23
Fri 24
Sat 25
Sun 26
Wind certainty

Wind certainty tells you how much the weather models agree on the forecast.

  • High certainty: Models agree closely; forecast is reliable.
  • Medium certainty: Some disagreement; conditions may shift slightly.
  • Low certainty: Models diverge; treat forecast with caution.

We calculate this by comparing wind speed, gust and direction from multiple models (like GFS, ECMWF, Arome, and Harmonie) and seeing how closely they match. They are weighted, meaning that some models count more than others, depending on how good they are for a certain spot.

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Readme

Welcome! If youโ€™re new to surf forecasting, check out this quick guide.

Forecast Table

The forecast table (the section on the page with all the numbers) is designed to pack as much information in the screen as possible. Although intimidating at first, it will help you make informed decisions about the waves faster, trust me :D. The table consists of roughly four sections, time and predictions, wind, waves, and tides:

๐Ÿ”ฎ Time and predictions section

Here we show the forecast thour and the overall surf quality prediction. This is determined based on the wave, wind and tide quality prediction. These individual predictions can be found on the forecast map.

๐Ÿ’จ Wind section

The first row on the table (with the ๐Ÿ’จ icon) shows wind speed, direction and gust. The more the wind speed the more aggressive the color (from blue, green, orange to red).

๐ŸŒŠ Wave section

The waves section consists of three rows, one for wave height and direction, one for period and one for wave energy. Our algorithm choices the "dominant wave". This is normally the first swell partition, but with heavy local storms it displays the wind waves. If that's the case, we display the numbers in italic and in gray.

๐ŸŒ’ Tide section

The tide section consists of a row with the actual heights per hour (measured at the half hour) and a table that displays the flow of the tide and the extremes (lows and highs).

Forecast map

The forecast map consists of arrows. These arrows represent all wave partitions (swell partitions and wind wave partition) and the wind. This allows you to see things like: a secondary swell or wind waves messes up the surf, or the wind is just a tick offshore so very surfable. Click a metric label in the bottom left to bring that arrow to the front โ€” handy when arrows overlap.

Forecast Cheat Sheet

Short on time? Focus on wave energy. Itโ€™s the best single metric to gauge how big and powerful the waves will be.

Click any table cell to jump to that forecast hour. The map will update with forecast arrows, so you can see if wind and swell direction are lining up.

Use the table sidebar to switch units for height and speed.

Log your surf sessions to compare forecasts with real sessions and sharpen future predictions.

Models and Updates

Surfnerd blends multiple global and local wind and swell models using advanced interpolation and spatial techniques to create an "ensemble" forecast. Forecasts are refreshed hourly.

Surf Predictions

Our AI-driven algorithm scores surf quality, shown by green, orange, and gray dots. Each forecast hour is rated for wind, swell, and tide quality, then combined into an overall score. Hereโ€™s the scale:

Perfect
Good
Average
Bad or No Data

Session logs also feed the algorithm โ€” the more you log, the smarter your forecasts get.

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