Poles
Hourly
Confidence
Compare
⏱️s.
⚡️kJ
Saturday 08
Sunday 09
Monday 10
Tuesday 11
Wednesday 12
Thursday 13
Tap a forecast cell to explore conditions on the map.
Timezone: America/New_York
Wind: GFS (20251108 00z)
Waves: GFS WAVE (20251108 00z)

Poles surf guide

Poles is a surf spot that has its own vibe, nestled away on Long Island. It's known for its shifty, reef-sculpted peaks that can be fun on medium to larger swells. When the waves are on, they roll in west of Ditch Plains. However, it's important to keep in mind that Poles' reputation for being “good from afar, far from good” can sometimes hold true, especially when conditions aren’t ideal. This spot was formerly called Fortress after WWII-era bunkers nearby but later became known as Poles due to the once-existing pilings along the beach that have since disappeared.

The surf can handle swell sizes from about 3 feet (0.9 meters) to 8 feet (2.4 meters) and breaks over both sand and rock. Most of the good waves come when swells originate from the Southeast or East-Southeast, and the best conditions are found with a low tide. You'll get a mix of lefts and rights, which is pretty cool for those looking to switch it up. On bigger days, paddling out can be doable, but it may be tougher depending on the swell size. While the waves are generally softer than at some other spots, they still have potential, especially during the autumn and winter months. Fish and longboards are good choices for your sessions here.

Access to Poles can be a bit tricky, so be prepared for that. The crowd factor ranges from mellow to moderate, making it a laid-back spot to surf for the most part. The local vibe is generally friendly, so it’s a good place for both beginners and intermediates to enjoy. Just keep an eye out for hazards like the cliffs and rocks nearby. Overall, if you catch it on the right day, Poles can be a fun place to ride some waves.

Surf reports and surf forecasts nearby Poles

Atlantic Terrace
New York, United States
Beach break
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Tue 11
Wed 12
Thu 13
Fri 14
Sat 15
Sun 16
Mon 17
Tue 18
Wed 19
Fortress
New York, United States
Reef break
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Tue 11
Wed 12
Thu 13
Fri 14
Sat 15
Sun 16
Mon 17
Tue 18
Wed 19
Poles
New York, United States
Reef break
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Tue 11
Wed 12
Thu 13
Fri 14
Sat 15
Sun 16
Mon 17
Tue 18
Wed 19
Ditch Plains
New York, United States
Reef break
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Tue 11
Wed 12
Thu 13
Fri 14
Sat 15
Sun 16
Mon 17
Tue 18
Wed 19
Trailer Park
New York, United States
Reef break
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Tue 11
Wed 12
Thu 13
Fri 14
Sat 15
Sun 16
Mon 17
Tue 18
Wed 19
Confidence

Confidence tells you how much the weather models agree on the forecast.

  • High confidence: Models agree closely; forecast is reliable.
  • Medium confidence: Some disagreement; conditions may shift slightly.
  • Low confidence: Models diverge; treat forecast with caution.

We calculate the wind confidence by comparing wind speed, gust and direction from multiple models (like GFS, ECMWF, Arome, and Harmonie) and seeing how closely they match. For wave certainty we compare height, period and direction, also on multiple models. They are weighted, meaning that some models count more than others, depending on how good they are for a certain spot.

Readme

Welcome! If you’re new to surf forecasting, check out this quick guide.

Forecast Table

The forecast table (the section on the page with all the numbers) is designed to pack as much information in the screen as possible. Although intimidating at first, it will help you make informed decisions about the waves faster, trust me :D. The table consists of roughly four sections, time and predictions, wind, waves, and tides:

🔮 Time and predictions section

Here we show the forecast thour and the overall surf quality prediction. This is determined based on the wave, wind and tide quality prediction. These individual predictions can be found on the forecast map.

💨 Wind section

The first row on the table (with the 💨 icon) shows wind speed, direction and gust. The more the wind speed the more aggressive the color (from blue, green, orange to red).

🌊 Wave section

The waves section consists of three rows, one for wave height and direction, one for period and one for wave energy. Our algorithm choices the "dominant wave". This is normally the first swell partition, but with heavy local storms it displays the wind waves. If that's the case, we display the numbers in italic and in gray.

🌒 Tide section

The tide section consists of a row with the actual heights per hour (measured at the half hour) and a table that displays the flow of the tide and the extremes (lows and highs).

Forecast map

The forecast map consists of arrows. These arrows represent all wave partitions (swell partitions and wind wave partition) and the wind. This allows you to see things like: a secondary swell or wind waves messes up the surf, or the wind is just a tick offshore so very surfable. Click a metric label in the bottom left to bring that arrow to the front — handy when arrows overlap.

Forecast Cheat Sheet

Short on time? Focus on wave energy. It’s the best single metric to gauge how big and powerful the waves will be.

Click any table cell to jump to that forecast hour. The map will update with forecast arrows, so you can see if wind and swell direction are lining up.

Use the table sidebar to switch units for height and speed.

Log your surf sessions to compare forecasts with real sessions and sharpen future predictions.

Models and Updates

Surfnerd blends multiple global and local wind and swell models using advanced interpolation and spatial techniques to create an "ensemble" forecast. Forecasts are refreshed hourly.

Surf Predictions

Our AI-driven algorithm scores surf quality, shown by green, orange, and gray dots. Each forecast hour is rated for wind, swell, and tide quality, then combined into an overall score. Here’s the scale:

Perfect
Good
Average
Bad or No Data

Session logs also feed the algorithm — the more you log, the smarter your forecasts get.

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