Willow Creek
Hourly
Confidence
Compare
โฑ๏ธs.
โšก๏ธkJ
Friday 31
Saturday 01
Sunday 02
Monday 03
Tuesday 04
Wednesday 05
Tap a forecast cell to explore conditions on the map.
Timezone: America/Los_Angeles
Wind: GFS (20251031 06z)
Waves: GFS WAVE (20251031 06z)

Willow Creek surf guide

Willow Creek is located on the southern end of the Big Sur coast, part of the Los Padres National Forest. Itโ€™s the closest surf spot youโ€™ll find in this rugged region, though it can be pretty tricky to get a solid read on the surf here unless you're familiar with the local conditions. The spot is marked by the Willow Creek Picnic Ground with a small parking area and restrooms right under the highway bridge. Expect a clean environment, but donโ€™t expect a warm welcome if you're not a local.

The surf at Willow Creek features two main peaks, with the left-hander near the parking area generally offering the best waves. You can expect sizes ranging from chest high (1.2 meters) to 2X overhead (over 3 meters), and it can handle swells from 4 feet (1.2 meters) up to 10 feet (3 meters). The predominant swell direction is Northwest, but it can also work with northern and southern swells. The waves break over boulders, so itโ€™s essential to be cautious. The power here is impressive, meaning youโ€™ll often find hollow sections and large, carvable lefthand walls. For your best bet, aim for a medium or high tide, and keep an eye on the east or northeast winds. This spot is suitable for expert surfers looking for a bit of a challenge.

Willow Creek can generally be crowded, especially when conditions are good. Locals are known to be a bit reserved with outsiders, so if youโ€™re solo and respectful, you might blend in. You can always escape to the southern peak if the north gets too packed. Be mindful that while the surf is technical, it's part of the Big Sur experience, where dealing with the elements is just part of the game.

Surf reports and surf forecasts nearby Willow Creek

San Simeon Creek
California, United States
Beach break
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Tue 11
Exotics
California, United States
Reef break
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Tue 11
San Simeon
California, United States
Beach break, Reef break
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Tue 11
Pico Creek
California, United States
Beach break
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Tue 11
Arroyo Laguna
California, United States
Beach break
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Tue 11
San Carpoforo Creek
California, United States
Beach break
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Tue 11
Lighthouse/Cadis
California, United States
Beach break
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Tue 11
Piedras Blancas
California, United States
Beach break, Reef break
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Tue 11
Sand Dollar Beach
California, United States
Beach break
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Tue 11
Willow Creek
California, United States
Reef break
Fri 31
Sat 1
Sun 2
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Tue 11
Confidence

Confidence tells you how much the weather models agree on the forecast.

  • High confidence: Models agree closely; forecast is reliable.
  • Medium confidence: Some disagreement; conditions may shift slightly.
  • Low confidence: Models diverge; treat forecast with caution.

We calculate the wind confidence by comparing wind speed, gust and direction from multiple models (like GFS, ECMWF, Arome, and Harmonie) and seeing how closely they match. For wave certainty we compare height, period and direction, also on multiple models. They are weighted, meaning that some models count more than others, depending on how good they are for a certain spot.

Surfnerd Logo
Join Surfnerd+
Help keep Surfnerd independent and ad-free while we build the future of surf forecasting.
What you get today:
  • Surfnerd
    intelligent
    forecast
    (high accuracy!)
  • Shows
    confidence
    scores
    (more trust)
  • Compare
    models
    (more data)
  • Access all
    models
    (vs GFS only)
  • 1-hour
    forecast steps
    (vs 3-hour)
  • 12-day
    forecast range
    (vs 6-day)
"Great Forecasts. Nothing more, nothing less."
By purchasing the product, you accept the Terms of Use & acknowledge the Privacy policy.
Share
Join Surfnerd for free
  • Save favorite spots
  • Set home spot
  • Log surf sessions
Sign up with AppleSign up with Google

Readme

Welcome! If youโ€™re new to surf forecasting, check out this quick guide.

Forecast Table

The forecast table (the section on the page with all the numbers) is designed to pack as much information in the screen as possible. Although intimidating at first, it will help you make informed decisions about the waves faster, trust me :D. The table consists of roughly four sections, time and predictions, wind, waves, and tides:

๐Ÿ”ฎ Time and predictions section

Here we show the forecast thour and the overall surf quality prediction. This is determined based on the wave, wind and tide quality prediction. These individual predictions can be found on the forecast map.

๐Ÿ’จ Wind section

The first row on the table (with the ๐Ÿ’จ icon) shows wind speed, direction and gust. The more the wind speed the more aggressive the color (from blue, green, orange to red).

๐ŸŒŠ Wave section

The waves section consists of three rows, one for wave height and direction, one for period and one for wave energy. Our algorithm choices the "dominant wave". This is normally the first swell partition, but with heavy local storms it displays the wind waves. If that's the case, we display the numbers in italic and in gray.

๐ŸŒ’ Tide section

The tide section consists of a row with the actual heights per hour (measured at the half hour) and a table that displays the flow of the tide and the extremes (lows and highs).

Forecast map

The forecast map consists of arrows. These arrows represent all wave partitions (swell partitions and wind wave partition) and the wind. This allows you to see things like: a secondary swell or wind waves messes up the surf, or the wind is just a tick offshore so very surfable. Click a metric label in the bottom left to bring that arrow to the front โ€” handy when arrows overlap.

Forecast Cheat Sheet

Short on time? Focus on wave energy. Itโ€™s the best single metric to gauge how big and powerful the waves will be.

Click any table cell to jump to that forecast hour. The map will update with forecast arrows, so you can see if wind and swell direction are lining up.

Use the table sidebar to switch units for height and speed.

Log your surf sessions to compare forecasts with real sessions and sharpen future predictions.

Models and Updates

Surfnerd blends multiple global and local wind and swell models using advanced interpolation and spatial techniques to create an "ensemble" forecast. Forecasts are refreshed hourly.

Surf Predictions

Our AI-driven algorithm scores surf quality, shown by green, orange, and gray dots. Each forecast hour is rated for wind, swell, and tide quality, then combined into an overall score. Hereโ€™s the scale:

Perfect
Good
Average
Bad or No Data

Session logs also feed the algorithm โ€” the more you log, the smarter your forecasts get.

With Surfnerd, no more "you should have been here yesterday"

Surfnerd for iOS: Faster loading, smoother experience.
Download on the App Store