Peñascal
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Hourly Forecast
Timezone: America/Lima
⏱️s.
⚡️kJ
Wednesday 17
Thursday 18
Friday 19
Saturday 20
Sunday 21
Monday 22
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Peñascal surf guide

Peñascal is located off the southern tip of the San Bartolo headland. It’s known for its rugged landscape and powerful waves, making it a notable spot for surfers in the area. The wave generally breaks over boulders, which means it's essential to be mindful of your surroundings, especially if you're not experienced with rock-hopping. The crowds here are usually moderate and well-spread out, thanks to the shifting nature of the peak. It can be a fun spot, but it's not for everyone.

The surf at Peñascal is primarily a long right, but you can catch some lefts depending on the swell direction. The optimal swell direction is South, and it handles swell sizes at about 6ft (approximately 1.8 meters). When the swell is nicely lined up from the South-Southwest, the right can produce some pretty mean barrels. It tends to be more of a wall-shaping wave, which can get serious from double-overhead heights at the point. Low to mid tide is generally preferable here, and with Northeast winds, you can find it working well. The conditions are better suited for intermediate surfers who can handle the drops and the intensity.

While the high tide can mess with the surf quality, the wave often handles a bit of onshore wind better than other nearby breaks. Just keep in mind that the paddle back out can be tricky. The area has a good consistency when there's a proper swell, but you might need to wait for those head-high conditions to get the best rides. If you're not used to rocky spots, consider starting on the mellower peaks in the bay near the jetties.

Surf reports and surf forecasts nearby Peñascal

Playa Norte
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La Isla
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Punta Rocas
Lima Province, Peru
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Wed 17
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Santa Rosa
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El Huayaco
Lima Province, Peru
Reef break
Wed 17
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Peña Rosa
Unknown Region, Unknown Country
Reef break
Wed 17
Thu 18
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Peñascal
Unknown Region, Unknown Country
Reef break
Wed 17
Thu 18
Fri 19
Sat 20
Sun 21
Mon 22
Tue 23
Wed 24
Thu 25
Fri 26
Sat 27
Sun 28
Penascal
Provincia De Lima, Peru
Reef break
Wed 17
Thu 18
Fri 19
Sat 20
Sun 21
Mon 22
Tue 23
Wed 24
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Fri 26
Sat 27
Sun 28
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Readme

Welcome! If you’re new to surf forecasting, check out this quick guide.

Forecast Table

The forecast table (the section on the page with all the numbers) is designed to pack as much information in the screen as possible. Although intimidating at first, it will help you make informed decisions about the waves faster, trust me :D. The table consists of roughly four sections, time and predictions, wind, waves, and tides:

🔮 Time and predictions section

Here we show the forecast thour and the overall surf quality prediction. This is determined based on the wave, wind and tide quality prediction. These individual predictions can be found on the forecast map.

💨 Wind section

The first row on the table (with the 💨 icon) shows wind speed, direction and gust. The more the wind speed the more aggressive the color (from blue, green, orange to red).

🌊 Wave section

The waves section consists of three rows, one for wave height and direction, one for period and one for wave energy. Our algorithm choices the "dominant wave". This is normally the first swell partition, but with heavy local storms it displays the wind waves. If that's the case, we display the numbers in italic and in gray.

🌒 Tide section

The tide section consists of a row with the actual heights per hour (measured at the half hour) and a table that displays the flow of the tide and the extremes (lows and highs).

Forecast map

The forecast map consists of arrows. These arrows represent all wave partitions (swell partitions and wind wave partition) and the wind. This allows you to see things like: a secondary swell or wind waves messes up the surf, or the wind is just a tick offshore so very surfable. Click a metric label in the bottom left to bring that arrow to the front — handy when arrows overlap.

Forecast Cheat Sheet

Short on time? Focus on wave energy. It’s the best single metric to gauge how big and powerful the waves will be.

Click any table cell to jump to that forecast hour. The map will update with forecast arrows, so you can see if wind and swell direction are lining up.

Use the table sidebar to switch units for height and speed.

Log your surf sessions to compare forecasts with real sessions and sharpen future predictions.

Models and Updates

Surfnerd blends multiple global and local wind and swell models using advanced interpolation and spatial techniques to create an "ensemble" forecast. Forecasts are refreshed hourly.

Surf Predictions

Our AI-driven algorithm scores surf quality, shown by green, orange, and gray dots. Each forecast hour is rated for wind, swell, and tide quality, then combined into an overall score. Here’s the scale:

Perfect
Good
Average
Bad or No Data

Session logs also feed the algorithm — the more you log, the smarter your forecasts get.

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Wind certainty

Wind certainty tells you how much the weather models agree on the forecast.

  • High certainty: Models agree closely; forecast is reliable.
  • Medium certainty: Some disagreement; conditions may shift slightly.
  • Low certainty: Models diverge; treat forecast with caution.

We calculate this by comparing wind speed, gust and direction from multiple models (like GFS, ECMWF, Arome, and Harmonie) and seeing how closely they match. They are weighted, meaning that some models count more than others, depending on how good they are for a certain spot.

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