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Surf forecast for Ranch

Map showing Ranch
Wwvs
2.9ft 4s.
43kJ
Swl 3
0.3ft 10s.
2kJ
Swl 2
1.6ft 5s.
22kJ
Swl 1
3.5ft 6s.
124kJ
Wnd
13mph
17mph
Tide
๐Ÿ’จmph
๐ŸŒŠft
โฑ๏ธs.
โšก๏ธkJ
Timezone:
America/Jamaica
Forecast updated:
15/10, 01:00 am
Wind: SN UNITY Atmos
(20261015 00z)
Waves: SN UNITY WAVE
(20261015 00z)

Weather

Thursday 15/10

Water temperature
84ยฐF
Daily average
Air temperatureBeta
Over water
83โ€“84ยฐF
On shore
78โ€“83ยฐF
Moon phase
Waxing crescent
23% illuminated
Closest moon phase
First quarter
Sun 18/10 11:14 am
Tide range
0.3ft - 1.1ft
Low 04:45 am ยท High 01:15 pm
Next spring tide
Wed 28/10
1.2ft range
Next neap tide
Sun 18/10
0.5ft range

Timeline

Thu 15/10 to Sat 17/10
No surf windows (3 days)

Ranch Surf Forecast Guide

Overview

Ranch is a lava reef spread across a wide, cliff-fringed bay, with two passes producing four separate waves. On the north side of the bay there's a nice left that's fun when the swell is small and easterly. Across the pass sits the main event: a long, heavy right that throws a couple of barrel sections as it peels over shallow reef, with rides running up to 100 yards depending on the swell. That same peak also has a left off its south side, which comes to life when there's more north in the swell and the right starts closing out in sections.

Past the second pass, a right breaks off "Finger Rock" on the south side of the bay, a tall obelisk whose siblings were knocked over in Hurricane Gilbert, and peels into the channel. It was first ridden in the '60s and is a genuine big-wave spot. Warm, clear Caribbean water rounds out the setting.

When It Works

The reef draws swell from north-northeast through east to south-southeast, and is usable from 1.2 m / 4 ft to 4.6 m / 15 ft. Spring, autumn, and winter are the seasons to watch, and when it lines up the waves are decent.

Wind and Tide

Look for west-northwest offshore wind, with a workable wind window running from west to north-northwest. The reef can work through most of the tide, though a rising tide is generally the better call.

Local Tips

This one suits intermediate and expert surfers on a shortboard, and the outer right in particular is big-wave territory better left to those who know what they're doing. The paddle is easy most of the time but gets challenging on hurricane swells, and the reef is shallow enough to keep an eye on. Expect a quiet lineup that can feel a little reserved.

Access

Parking is right there at the spot.

Surf spots near Ranch

Ranch
Saint Thomas, Jamaica
Reef break
Thu 15
Fri 16
Sat 17
Sun 18
Mon 19
Hector's River
Portland, Jamaica
Reef break
Thu 15
Fri 16
Sat 17
Sun 18
Mon 19
The Ranch - Jamaica
Portland, Jamaica
Reef break
Thu 15
Fri 16
Sat 17
Sun 18
Mon 19
Long Bay - Jamaica
Portland, Jamaica
Beach break
Thu 15
Fri 16
Sat 17
Sun 18
Mon 19
Prospect Point
Saint Thomas, Jamaica
Point break
Thu 15
Fri 16
Sat 17
Sun 18
Mon 19

Frequently asked questions

What are good surfing conditions for Ranch?

Ranch is usually best with north-northeast through east to south-southeast (NNE-E-SSE) swell around 1.2 m / 4 ft to 4.6 m / 15 ft, wind from west to north-northwest (W-NNW), with west-northwest (WNW) offshore, and any tide.

Where is the surf spot Ranch?

Ranch is a surf spot in Dalvey, Saint Thomas, Jamaica.

What is the surf break like at Ranch?

Ranch is a right-and-left reef break over lava. Expect a quiet crowd and a reserved lineup.

What season is best for surfing Ranch?

The main surf season at Ranch is spring, autumn, and winter.

What surfing skill level is Ranch suitable for?

Ranch can suit intermediate and expert surfers.

Is Ranch beginner friendly for surfing?

Ranch is better suited to intermediate and expert surfers.

What surfboards work at Ranch?

Shortboard is a common choice at Ranch.

What surf spots are near Ranch?

Other nearby surf spots are Hector's River, Prospect Point, The Ranch - Jamaica, and Long Bay - Jamaica.

What swell direction works for surfing at Ranch?

Ranch can work with swell from north-northeast through east to south-southeast (NNE-E-SSE).

What swell size works for surfing at Ranch?

Ranch usually works with swell around 1.2 m / 4 ft to 4.6 m / 15 ft.

What wind direction is best for surfing at Ranch?

Ranch usually works with wind from west to north-northwest (W-NNW); west-northwest (WNW) is offshore.

What wind direction is offshore for surfing at Ranch?

West-northwest (WNW) is offshore at Ranch.

What tide works best for surfing at Ranch?

Ranch can work on all tides. A rising tide is usually better here.

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Readme

Welcome! If youโ€™re new to surf forecasting, check out this quick guide.

Forecast Table

The forecast table (the section on the page with all the numbers) is designed to pack as much information in the screen as possible. Although intimidating at first, it will help you make informed decisions about the waves faster, trust me :D. The table consists of roughly four sections, time and predictions, wind, waves, and tides:

๐Ÿ”ฎ Time and predictions section

Here we show the forecast thour and the overall surf quality prediction. This is determined based on the wave, wind and tide quality prediction. These individual predictions can be found on the forecast map.

๐Ÿ’จ Wind section

The first row on the table (with the ๐Ÿ’จ icon) shows wind speed, direction and gust. The more the wind speed the more aggressive the color (from blue, green, orange to red).

๐ŸŒŠ Wave section

The waves section consists of three rows, one for wave height and direction, one for period and one for wave energy. Our algorithm chooses the "dominant wave" using spot-adjusted surf energy (depth + directional fit). This is usually the first swell partition, but during local storms it can switch to wind waves. If that happens, values are shown in gray and italic.

๐ŸŽฏ Model agreement

The small letter in the wind and wave cells shows how closely the weather models we blend agree for that hour.

  • H, the models line up closely.
  • M, the models differ somewhat, so conditions may still shift.
  • L, the models disagree, so check again closer to your session.
  • A dash means only one model covered this hour, so there was nothing to compare.

For wind we compare each model's wind vector, plus gusts where every model reports them. For waves we compare height, period and direction of the matched swell systems.

It is a measure of model agreement, not a probability that the forecast is right.

๐ŸŒ’ Tide section

The tide section consists of a row with the actual heights per hour (measured at the half hour) and a table that displays the flow of the tide and the extremes (lows and highs).

Forecast map

The forecast map consists of arrows. These arrows represent all wave partitions (swell partitions and wind wave partition) and the wind. This allows you to see things like: a secondary swell or wind waves messes up the surf, or the wind is just a tick offshore so very surfable. Click a metric label in the bottom left to bring that arrow to the front โ€” handy when arrows overlap.

Forecast Cheat Sheet

Short on time? Focus on wave energy. Itโ€™s the best single metric to gauge how big and powerful the waves will be.

Click any table cell to jump to that forecast hour. The map will update with forecast arrows, so you can see if wind and swell direction are lining up.

Use the table sidebar to switch units for height and speed.

Log your surf sessions to compare forecasts with real sessions and sharpen future predictions.

Models and Updates

Surfnerd blends multiple global and local wind and swell models using advanced interpolation and spatial techniques to create an "ensemble" forecast. Forecasts are refreshed hourly.

Surf Predictions

Our AI-driven algorithm scores surf quality, shown by green, orange, and gray dots. Each forecast hour is rated for wind, swell, and tide quality, then combined into an overall score. Hereโ€™s the scale:

Perfect
Good
Average
Bad or No Data

Session logs also feed the algorithm โ€” the more you log, the smarter your forecasts get.

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