Mdumbe
Hourly
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Timezone: Africa/Johannesburg
Wind: GFS (20251107 00z)
Waves: GFS WAVE (20251107 00z)

Mdumbe surf guide

Mdumbe is a surf spot located in the Eastern Cape, known for its unique setup at the Transkei rivermouth. This place can really shine when conditions align, especially when there’s a good deposit of sand on the rocks. On its day, Mdumbe is one of the better waves in the area, appealing to those looking for a solid surf session. However, when conditions aren't just right, it can feel a bit below average, so it's good to keep an eye on the swell and tides before heading out.

The wave at Mdumbe delivers some solid action, particularly when there’s a South swell coming in. It tends to work best with swell sizes around 1 to 3 feet (0.3 to 0.9 meters). The wave breaks over uneven reef and sand and generally peels to the right. Surfers can expect hollow sections followed by walls that offer good rideable distance, sometimes exceeding 700 meters. The wave does suck quite a bit on the outside shelf, and with the right tide—low to high—it can really get fast as it approaches the rivermouth. Just be ready for the blind paddle into the keyhole, as you won’t always see the sets rolling in.

For optimal conditions, the preferred wind is from the west, which helps keep the surface clean. Intermediate surfers tend to enjoy this spot due to its variety and challenge, but it’s something to take seriously, especially given the unique surfing environment. Plus, with Whale Rock to the south, it’s good to know that it offers an option when the swell is small and the wind is light. Just remember, sharks are always a possibility in these waters.

Surf reports and surf forecasts nearby Mdumbe

Coffee Bay Beach
Eastern Cape, South Africa
Beach break
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Tue 11
Wed 12
Thu 13
Fri 14
Sat 15
Sun 16
Mon 17
Tue 18
Coffee Bay Point
Eastern Cape, South Africa
Point break
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Tue 11
Wed 12
Thu 13
Fri 14
Sat 15
Sun 16
Mon 17
Tue 18
Mdumbe
Eastern Cape, South Africa
Point break
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Tue 11
Wed 12
Thu 13
Fri 14
Sat 15
Sun 16
Mon 17
Tue 18
Lwandile
Eastern Cape, South Africa
Point break
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Tue 11
Wed 12
Thu 13
Fri 14
Sat 15
Sun 16
Mon 17
Tue 18
Presleys Bay
Eastern Cape, South Africa
Beach break
Fri 7
Sat 8
Sun 9
Mon 10
Tue 11
Wed 12
Thu 13
Fri 14
Sat 15
Sun 16
Mon 17
Tue 18
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Welcome! If you’re new to surf forecasting, check out this quick guide.

Forecast Table

The forecast table (the section on the page with all the numbers) is designed to pack as much information in the screen as possible. Although intimidating at first, it will help you make informed decisions about the waves faster, trust me :D. The table consists of roughly four sections, time and predictions, wind, waves, and tides:

🔮 Time and predictions section

Here we show the forecast thour and the overall surf quality prediction. This is determined based on the wave, wind and tide quality prediction. These individual predictions can be found on the forecast map.

💨 Wind section

The first row on the table (with the 💨 icon) shows wind speed, direction and gust. The more the wind speed the more aggressive the color (from blue, green, orange to red).

🌊 Wave section

The waves section consists of three rows, one for wave height and direction, one for period and one for wave energy. Our algorithm choices the "dominant wave". This is normally the first swell partition, but with heavy local storms it displays the wind waves. If that's the case, we display the numbers in italic and in gray.

🌒 Tide section

The tide section consists of a row with the actual heights per hour (measured at the half hour) and a table that displays the flow of the tide and the extremes (lows and highs).

Forecast map

The forecast map consists of arrows. These arrows represent all wave partitions (swell partitions and wind wave partition) and the wind. This allows you to see things like: a secondary swell or wind waves messes up the surf, or the wind is just a tick offshore so very surfable. Click a metric label in the bottom left to bring that arrow to the front — handy when arrows overlap.

Forecast Cheat Sheet

Short on time? Focus on wave energy. It’s the best single metric to gauge how big and powerful the waves will be.

Click any table cell to jump to that forecast hour. The map will update with forecast arrows, so you can see if wind and swell direction are lining up.

Use the table sidebar to switch units for height and speed.

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Models and Updates

Surfnerd blends multiple global and local wind and swell models using advanced interpolation and spatial techniques to create an "ensemble" forecast. Forecasts are refreshed hourly.

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Our AI-driven algorithm scores surf quality, shown by green, orange, and gray dots. Each forecast hour is rated for wind, swell, and tide quality, then combined into an overall score. Here’s the scale:

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Confidence

Confidence tells you how much the weather models agree on the forecast.

  • High confidence: Models agree closely; forecast is reliable.
  • Medium confidence: Some disagreement; conditions may shift slightly.
  • Low confidence: Models diverge; treat forecast with caution.

We calculate the wind confidence by comparing wind speed, gust and direction from multiple models (like GFS, ECMWF, Arome, and Harmonie) and seeing how closely they match. For wave certainty we compare height, period and direction, also on multiple models. They are weighted, meaning that some models count more than others, depending on how good they are for a certain spot.

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