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Surf forecast for Tocones

Tide
⏱️s.
⚡️kJ
Timezone:
America/Puerto_Rico
Forecast updated:
20/06, 20:00
Wind: SN UNITY Atmos
(20260621 00z)
Waves: SN UNITY WAVE
(20260621 00z)
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Timeline

Tomorrow Sun 21/06 to Mon 22/06
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Tocones Surf Forecast Guide

Tocones is a surf spot located in Puerto Rico that offers a unique experience for surfers willing to hunt down its elusive waves. While it's not the most consistent break out there, when the conditions align, it can deliver some exciting surfing. The access is pretty straightforward; just park close by and support the locals with a couple bucks since you're parking in their area.

The wave at Tocones is a right-hand reef break that usually operates best during low tide. It can handle swell sizes from 5 to 8 feet (about 1.5 to 2.4 meters), primarily on northwesterly swells. The bottom is made up of shallow, rock-filled reef, so surfers need to be careful. The ideal wind directions are southeast to southwest, with the most favorable conditions happening during autumn and winter. While it may not be for everyone, expert surfers looking for barrels might find what they want here, as the wave can deliver some serious intensity when it works.

The crowd factor at Tocones is generally low, meaning you might find yourself sharing the waves with just a few fellow surfers. As long as you respect the local vibe, interactions usually stay friendly. Do keep in mind that the shallow lava reef poses a significant hazard, so make sure you're prepared before dropping in.

Surf spots near Tocones

La Bomba
San Juan, Puerto Rico
Unknown break
Sun 21
Mon 22
Tue 23
Wed 24
Thu 25
Pine Grove
Carolina, Puerto Rico
Unknown break
Sun 21
Mon 22
Tue 23
Wed 24
Thu 25
Chatarra
Carolina, Puerto Rico
Reef break
Sun 21
Mon 22
Tue 23
Wed 24
Thu 25
Aviones
Loíza, Puerto Rico
Reef break
Sun 21
Mon 22
Tue 23
Wed 24
Thu 25
Tocones
Loíza, Puerto Rico
Reef break
Sun 21
Mon 22
Tue 23
Wed 24
Thu 25

Frequently asked questions

What are good surfing conditions for Tocones?

Tocones is usually best with northwest to northeast (NW-NE) swell around 1.5 m / 5 ft to 2.4 m / 8 ft, wind from southeast through south to west-southwest (SE-S-WSW), with south (S) offshore, and low to mid tide.

Where is the surf spot Tocones?

Tocones is a surf spot in Carolina, Loíza, Puerto Rico.

What is the surf break like at Tocones?

Tocones is a right reef break over rock. Expect a quiet crowd and a reserved lineup.

What season is best for surfing Tocones?

The main surf season at Tocones is autumn and winter.

What surfing skill level is Tocones suitable for?

Tocones can suit expert surfers.

Is Tocones beginner friendly for surfing?

Tocones is better suited to expert surfers.

What surfboards work at Tocones?

Shortboard and Bodyboard are common choices at Tocones.

What surf spots are near Tocones?

Other nearby surf spots are Aviones, Chatarra, Pine Grove, and La Bomba.

What swell direction works for surfing at Tocones?

Tocones can work with swell from northwest to northeast (NW-NE).

What swell size works for surfing at Tocones?

Tocones usually works with swell around 1.5 m / 5 ft to 2.4 m / 8 ft.

What wind direction is best for surfing at Tocones?

Tocones usually works with wind from southeast through south to west-southwest (SE-S-WSW); south (S) is offshore.

What wind direction is offshore for surfing at Tocones?

South (S) is offshore at Tocones.

What tide works best for surfing at Tocones?

Tocones works best around low to mid tide. A rising tide is usually better here.

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Confidence

Confidence tells you how much the weather models agree on the forecast.

  • High confidence: Models agree closely; forecast is reliable.
  • Medium confidence: Some disagreement; conditions may shift slightly.
  • Low confidence: Models diverge; treat forecast with caution.

We calculate the wind confidence by comparing wind speed, gust and direction from multiple models (like GFS, ECMWF, Arome, and Harmonie) and seeing how closely they match. For wave certainty we compare height, period and direction, also on multiple models. They are weighted, meaning that some models count more than others, depending on how good they are for a certain spot.

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Readme

Welcome! If you’re new to surf forecasting, check out this quick guide.

Forecast Table

The forecast table (the section on the page with all the numbers) is designed to pack as much information in the screen as possible. Although intimidating at first, it will help you make informed decisions about the waves faster, trust me :D. The table consists of roughly four sections, time and predictions, wind, waves, and tides:

🔮 Time and predictions section

Here we show the forecast thour and the overall surf quality prediction. This is determined based on the wave, wind and tide quality prediction. These individual predictions can be found on the forecast map.

💨 Wind section

The first row on the table (with the 💨 icon) shows wind speed, direction and gust. The more the wind speed the more aggressive the color (from blue, green, orange to red).

🌊 Wave section

The waves section consists of three rows, one for wave height and direction, one for period and one for wave energy. Our algorithm chooses the "dominant wave" using spot-adjusted surf energy (depth + directional fit). This is usually the first swell partition, but during local storms it can switch to wind waves. If that happens, values are shown in gray and italic.

🌒 Tide section

The tide section consists of a row with the actual heights per hour (measured at the half hour) and a table that displays the flow of the tide and the extremes (lows and highs).

Forecast map

The forecast map consists of arrows. These arrows represent all wave partitions (swell partitions and wind wave partition) and the wind. This allows you to see things like: a secondary swell or wind waves messes up the surf, or the wind is just a tick offshore so very surfable. Click a metric label in the bottom left to bring that arrow to the front — handy when arrows overlap.

Forecast Cheat Sheet

Short on time? Focus on wave energy. It’s the best single metric to gauge how big and powerful the waves will be.

Click any table cell to jump to that forecast hour. The map will update with forecast arrows, so you can see if wind and swell direction are lining up.

Use the table sidebar to switch units for height and speed.

Log your surf sessions to compare forecasts with real sessions and sharpen future predictions.

Models and Updates

Surfnerd blends multiple global and local wind and swell models using advanced interpolation and spatial techniques to create an "ensemble" forecast. Forecasts are refreshed hourly.

Surf Predictions

Our AI-driven algorithm scores surf quality, shown by green, orange, and gray dots. Each forecast hour is rated for wind, swell, and tide quality, then combined into an overall score. Here’s the scale:

Perfect
Good
Average
Bad or No Data

Session logs also feed the algorithm — the more you log, the smarter your forecasts get.

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